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Alas, it would be foolish to assume
that each side is feigning difficulty merely as a negotiation tactic. Yes I have
no doubt that it is a usable issue - Trimble and Adams were at it all the time.
Now is the endgame!
The reality is stark for supporters
who never thought that it would come to this, realising a new phase of
partnership and cooperation is going to replace the belligerence so enjoyed by
each. So far, the Shinners could get away with unpopular things as long as
whatever they did cracked the unionists up. On the other hand, the DUP could be
seen as reasonable as long as the Shinners were perceived not to be able to come
up to the required mark.
Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams will be
very conscious of their own internal difficulties. They will also be factoring
issues that will not be in the minds of the party functionaries. For instance,
what is the price for blame? What is the alternative? What is the consequence of
failure?
The real mood within our community is
proving hard to read. There are few signs that the voter is particularly
exercised by the possibility of a deal. The mood seems to me to be actually very
calm. Those old enough will remember the anger and bitterness abroad over the
years when some initiative or another was mooted. Thankfully, those days seem
gone.
In recent times we've seen how both
sides, while quietly negotiating, have almost let on that they are not
negotiating. The DUP have been particularly guilty in this respect. St Andrews
was built around the two protagonists - to the virtual exclusion of all others.
Devolution and policing stood out with requirements expected from both sides. It
seems to have gone downhill from then. If the DUP agreed devolution, Sinn Fein
would sign up to policing. Sounds simple, doesn't it? Clearly not!
The DUP won't accept Sinn Fein in
government until they sign up to policing. The Shinners can't sign up, it would
seem, until a target date for the devolution of police and justice powers has
been agreed by all. Chicken and egg? You bet!
Meanwhile we all sit and wait. The
British Government could legislate for such a target date. The problem with that
possibility is that if the DUP, who expect to be the largest party, didn't agree
the government would be forced to write in a destabilising sanction along the
lines of suspending the Assembly in the event the date was not met.
Stop/start is nothing new to us.
However, if such a sanction were created, the potential is that the whole focus
for the foreseeable future would be upon policing and justice - and little else.
The belligerence would be centre stage. Every crackpot outside the peace process
would hold the future in their hands rather than in the hands of elected
representatives.
The next phase of the peace process
is parliamentary democracy. It would be a travesty to get stuck at this point.
It has taken a long time to ensure that politics takes primacy over
paramilitarism. The establishment of the Assembly is absolutely vital to finish
the job. Other factors - such as taking responsibility for health, education and
the economy etc are pressing. Being stuck where we are for any length of time is
unthinkable.
The endgame was always going to shake
up the republican movement and its supporters. It is, after all, the final
acceptance by republicans of Northern Ireland as a viable and integral part of
the UK. It is also the final acceptance by republicans that no authority other
than state authority is either practicable or tolerable. It is worth
consideration that if Adams pulls it off at the Ard Fheis, a real line in
history will have been drawn.
Quite a number of options exist in
the political process if the DUP help create a date for the devolution of
policing and justice and the position of Sinn Fein is proving dubious. Given the
prize that is on offer for this society, it would be a shame if it were stalled
and undermined. Put it up to the Shinners! They will have a substantial
management project because of the challenge. From my point of view I hope Adams
pulls it off. We, the unionists, should facilitate him to do so.
Either the DUP and Sinn Fein are
going to fulfill the promise of St Andrews or they are not. Recently the Prime
Minister made the point that if no agreement emerged around the disputed issue
then the proposed election of March 7 would not take place. The concept of
deadline has been examined before. The Prime Minister should now make it an
absolute deadline that must be met. The normal convention is that four weeks
before an election the Assembly would be dissolved. February 7 should be the
deadline. Make it and stick to it!
The cause of peace does not rest with
two parties alone. If the plug is pulled on the Assembly the next step is clear.
We just start all over again! In such circumstances, let's hope plan B doesn't
pollute things too much. |
